the poker journal

Is trading Forex basically legal gambling?

I'm a college student who won a chunky settlement and have been using it to pay for my living expenses. However, sick of seeing my bank account slowly deminish, I've been searching for a way to make enough money to pay for gas, beer money and sushi that only consist of me sitting at my computer for an hour or two a few days a week. I came across Forex trading and have been researching it thouroughly. After reading daily journals of traders it seems almost all of them barely break even in the long run. I feel they might as well be playing online poker. Is it worth it? Any other ideas? Is futures trading any better?

Well first of all I don't know of any successful Forex traders that post their journals. They are quite happy to make a nice return on their investment without having to toot their horn

There are some conservative strategies to invest in the forex market that many people consider too boring and evidently not complicated enough. It seems there is a breed of players entering the Forex market the same way they would belly up to a roulette wheel in Las Vegas.

I ran an analysis a couple of weeks ago that you may find interesting. First of all it is important to note that this is based on historical prices and is not necessarily representative of future results. But it is interesting.

Let's say that you opened a conservative hedge trade on the 1st of any month this year.with $10,000 and used a conservative margin of 10% You just let the account sit and didn't touch it what would it have looked like on 7/20/2007 (the day I ran the analysis).

If you opened your account on

Jan 1st = $13,161 on 7/20/2007
Feb 1st = $13,645
Mar 1st = $11,924
Apr 1st = $12,045
May 1st = $10,473
Jun 1st = $10,530

None of these accounts would have ever been close to a margin call and the Jan and Feb accounts would seem to have faired quite well through the China correction during late Feb / early Mar.

So I guess the morale of the story is that it is not the Forex market that is the problem. It is the human elements of greed, fear, lack of knowledge and lack of a conservative investment strategy.

It's not what you do it's how you do it!

Good luck with your decision process.

Paul

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